by Justin Carter
Category 1: Players who will be lottery picks & end up as rotation pieces at best
Noah Vonleh// BUST
Aaron Gordon// ROTATION
Nik Stauskas// ROTATION
Doug McDermott// DEPENDS ON TEAM
Elfrid Payton// BUST
Category 2: First rounders who’ll do nothing
Scenario 1: Pick someone other than Wiggins or Parker. I’m not sure which player is going to have a better career, but Embiid’s injury leaves Cleveland with two realistic choices. They’ll probably draft Dante Exum, who’ll have a decent career but won’t reach the heights of Parker & Wiggins.
Scenario 2: Trade down & make bad choices. I’ve seen rumors of giving the #1 to the Sixers for the #3 & the #10. Let’s say the Cavs do that. Smart picks then are probably Exum (yeah, I just said drafting him would be a bad move in the last post, but Exum at three & a second lottery pick is still a decent outcome) at three &– yikes, that area around ten is where I projected a string of busts. Maybe Aaron Gordon, who has rotation potential? Maybe Nurkic since the Cavs like foreign centers (HI BIG Z)? What would Cleveland do? You know they’d pick Embiid at three & he’d never get healthy, & they’d draft Doug McDermott at ten, who has stretch-four potential on a good team/well managed team but LOL Cleveland isn’t that well-managed team.
Scenario 3: Trade the #1 pick for Kevin Love. LeBron doesn’t sign with the Cavs. Kevin Love leaves when his contract ends.
i.e. second round picks who could end up in the lineup/rotation for competitive teams in the next year or two
Cleanthony Early (though he might go late first & thus not qualify)
The Rockets have the #25 pick &, since they’re determined to pursue LeBron or Carmelo, need to either trade it or use it on a euro-stash.
Scenario 1: Reach a little for a guy like Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Scenario 2: Draft night trade to somehow bring Kevin Love to Houston.
Scenario 3: Package that first rounder & Jeremy Lin for a protected pick next year.
1) There aren’t many good SGs in the NBA. Smart has the size of a two & the ability of a point guard, but with a little more he could be a solid combo guard.
2) As a Texan, I don’t like Oklahoma, which mostly manifests in a dislike for OU. OSU & OU are rivals. What’s good for OSU is bad for OU.